Thanksgiving Prop Bet Game

A tradition like any other…

That doesn’t sound right. Well, it’s not the Masters, but it is Thanksgiving, and that’s full of rich traditions. Family, food and football make for a perfect day to play the Thanksgiving Prop Bet Game.

As a reminder, this is a game you print off and play with your family and friends, either at home or virtually. You can download the file and print off as many copies as you’d like. Feel free to share it with family across the country and play together if you can’t see each other this holiday.

You’re not paying me to get into a contest. I’m not running it. I’ve just given you the tool to go have a good time with your family.

You, are probably the game manager in this case, so final scoring decisions will be yours. Some of these have to do with commercials, and based on locality, your commercials may be different than mine. For the Super Bowl I tweet out the answers, but for Thanksgiving I usually just hang with the family, and let you guys navigate.

There’s 21 questions, seven that have to do with each of the three games on Thanksgiving. There’s a good mix of real football props and weird things that I made up. I hope you enjoy it.

Here’s the link to download the PDF, or go ahead and view it below.

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Redraft Trade Value Chart – Week 2, 2021

This week’s update to the RTVC comes with a new feature… UP AND DOWN ARROWS!

Of course we’re taking a look at a snippet of the SuperFlex Trade Value Chart. Talk to your doctor and make your choice of which TVC is right for you…

Redraft Single QB Trade Value Chart

Redraft SuperFlex Trade Value Chart

Are you entertained? Do you like what you see here? Feel free to sign up for a 365-day pass to Shock Fantasy by going to the SHOP and placing an order for your Season Pass. If you use the promo code CHASE we’ll knock $15 off the price.

Don’t miss out of trade value charts for redraft and dynasty, the Shock Fantasy SuperDash which helps with your week-to-week lineup and DFS decisions and all of our Prop Bet Games.

This is a good measure of what each player seems to be worth in the open market. If there’s a player on this chart that is un-rostered, you’ll probably want to pick them up.

Always, I like to remind people that these trades work best if:

  1. You’re within 50 points of value
  2. It fills a need for both teams, with both teams dealing from their depth
  3. Uneven trades don’t work as well. Look at it like a player fraction. A 3-for-1 trade will seem fair to the party trading the “1” away about 33% of the time (1/3 = 33%). Whereas a 2-for-2 deal is usually closer to square.

Week 2 – Waiver Wire – Todd Heap Memorial Injury Report

Hi everyone. I’m back with this week’s waiver wire article and would like to submit for your re-approval, the Todd Heap Memorial Injury Report. These are guys who had some notable injuries change what could have been a fun little day of football.

Make sure to listen to the podcast version of this by searching out the SHOCK FANTASY PODCAST and subscribing to it on your favorite podcast platform. It should also be on a widget on the site, if you want to just hear me read this to you.

Todd Heap Memorial Injury Report
Ryan Fitzpatrick – QB Football Team – hip subluxation – 6-8 weeks
Raheem Mostert – RB 49ers – torn knee cartliage – Season
Jerry Jeudy – WR Broncos – high ankle sprain – 4-6 weeks
Michael Gallup – WR Cowboys – calf strain – 3-5 weeks
Odell Beckham – WR Browns –  ACL recovery – week-to-week
Brandon Aiyuk – WR 49ers – hamstring? – watch it

Jedrick Wills – LT Browns – ankle injury – week-to-week
Mekhi Becton – LT Jets – MCL Sprain – 4-6 weeks
Jason Peters – LT Bears – Quad – monitor
Jeffrey Okudah – CB Lions – Achilles – season
Jason Verrett – CB 49ers – ACL tear – season
Marshawn Lattimore – CB Saints – UCL in thumb – a couple of weeks


Jameis Winston – 30% rostered
Five touchdowns against the Packers does not happen every day. Nor will it happen every week for Winston. There are real glimmers of hope here though. A full year learning under Drew Brees and Sean Payton is something real. Winston said that Brees taught him about completing the process of each play to the best of his ability, and it showed, as the former top pick did not throw a pick. I’d go 15% in SuperFlex and 8% in single QB leagues.

Taylor Heineke – 0% rostered
Heinieke will get the start for at least the next month and change. In a little more than half a game’s work, he was efficient, connecting on 11-15 passes (73.3%) for 122 yards and a score. Worth noting that all four of Terry McLaurin’s targets came from Heinieke. He’s got a little bit of running ability as well. He’s probably worth about a 5% bid in SuperFlex leagues, but not in a single QB league.

Justin Fields – 52% rostered
Dude already outscored Andy Dalton on Sunday night. It’s not if, it’s when. And honestly the Bears need the mobility that Fields brings with a line that is amongst the worst in the league. He’s going to put up fantasy points. You’ll be sorry if you don’t get him now. My guess is he’s not available in SuperFlex leagues, but if he is I’d throw a healthy 20% on him. You should be able to lock him up for 11% in a single QB format.


Jared Goff – If he throws 57 times a game (which he could), even he will be fantasy relevant.

Sam Darnold – Dumped it off to CMC 9-times… and ran one in. The weapons are good enough for him to improve on last week’s numbers.

Derek Carr – Looked impressive down the stretch against the Ravens. There’s a little bit of swagger there.

Teddy Bridgewater – Jags this week. Jets next week.

Kirk Cousins – Even though many people just don’t like him, he has the ability to put up fantasy numbers every week. Good weapons, doesn’t make a ton of mistakes that hurt you from a fantasy perspective.

Running Back

Elijah Mitchell – 2% rostered
After Mostert went down, the 6th round rookie tallied 19 carries, 104 yards and a score against the Lions. With Mostert down for a week, it would not be surprising for Trey Sermon to be activated as well this next week to receive a shot. JaMycal Hasty is the other healthy running back on roster and is worth consideration as well. As Sermon was a healthy scratch due to performance in practice, I would imagine Mitchell has first crack to be the guy in a Shanahan offense, so he’s probably worth an early season FAAB bid of 20-30%.

Mark Ingram – NO!
Yeah. No. Just don’t do it. The Texans backfield is going to leave a lot to be desired this year. I know he had 26 carries. That’s a season high for him. Mark it down. Do not make a bid!

Tony Pollard – 52%
He will certainly be involved, especially in the passing game, catching all four of his targets against Tampa on Thursday. The Cowboys defense is awful, meaning game scripts may favor the more shifty Pollard more and more this season. Yeah, Zeke’s managers are already freaking out. If you’ve got Zeke on your roster without Pollard, a 12% bid is probably going to help secure him. Everyone else, he’s probably worth 10% and should be rostered.

Cordarrelle Patterson – Had 9 touches for the Falcons out of the backfield. That backfield is abysmal, and he will likely lead the backfield in fantasy points a few more times this year.

Wide Receiver
Christian Kirk – 15% rostered
Caught all five of his targets for 70 yards and a score against the amazingly terrible Tennessee secondary. The clarity of his position group is just not there though. AJ Green had 6 targets. Rondale Moore also had 5. Each of these players won’t see 5+ targets per week, so I feel like I’m going to take this as more of a good matchup than many. In 12-team leagues, I’m not targeting Kirk at more than a 1% bid, but I’ve been wrong before.

Jalen Reagor – 21% rostered
Is Jalen Hurts this good? Or are the Falcons this bad? That’s the ultimate question. Reagor hauled in all 6 of his targets from Hurts for 49 yards and a score, but I’m still a bit apprehensive. First, Falcons. Second, 6 catches for 49 yards is pretty bad for a WR. Let’s see some wiggle! Maybe we will. Maybe he figured it out. Upcoming matchups against the Niners, Cowboys, Chiefs and Panthers are all plus. In fact, there’s no real passing stoppers for the Eagles until Week 9. Okay, I’m convinced. 8% bid on Reagor.

Sterling Shepard – 39% rostered
I really try to stay clear of receivers who play with a QB I believe to be bad. Daniel Jones is bad. Shepard’s touchdown included some stellar YAC, and his 9 targets and 7-113-1 is a good fantasy line. I just feel like I’ve seen this movie before. I’m not bidding on Shepard, but you can probably nab him in your league for 3%, just like his new jersey number.

Bryan Edwards – 19%
People chalk up all of last year’s receiving success for the Raiders to Darren Waller. And that’s mostly right. Nelson Agholor is gone though, and so are 82 targets, a YPC that led the league, and 8 touchdowns. People drafted Ruggs to fill that role, but not so fast. Edwards seemed to be the guy that Derek Carr targeted in crunch time, and he was 5 inches short of a game winning touchdown in OT, that would have really made his 4-81 pop. Unfortunately the schedule is brutal coming up, with the Steelers, Dolphins, Chargers, Bears and Broncos in the next 5 games. He won’t earn many starting grades in the near future. I’d bid 1% if you need a WR5 in a month and change when his schedule gets easier.

Nelson Agholor – 33% rostered
Make no mistake. Agholor is the top WR on the Patriots, and is the best WR they’ve had since Julian Edelman was actually healthy like 5 years ago. He saw 7 targets and a 5-72-1 line, and that’s with Mac Jones getting through his first game jitters. This week the Pats get the Jets, and no one gets jitters playing the Jets… Jetters? He’s going to return WR3 value this year, so I’d bid 13%.

Tim Patrick – 2% rostered
Tim Possible should fill the Jerry Jeudy role while he’s missing for a month or more, and we’ve seen him be a good player for a while now. His 4-39-1 last week should increase this week against the Jags (and then they get the Jets in Week 3). Remember, Teddy kept 3 WRs active in the top 30 last season. He can do it again. I mean this with all sincerity, wide receivers with boring names come at a discount. So you’ll only need to bid 2% on Tim Patrick.

Marvin Jones – See, boring names like Tim Patrick catch balls and score.

Cedrick Wilson – Should fill in for Gallup for the next month or so as the third WR in Dallas.

Tight Ends
Juwan Johnson – 11% rostered
Caught all three of his targets, two of which were in the end zone. He’s going to be the hot pick up at the position this week, but I hope most of you listened to my FFW call on him a few weeks ago. He’s got great chemistry with Winston and despite Trautman getting some play, Johnson, a converted WR, was on the field a ton. You’ll have to drop like 14% on him at this point.

James O’Shaughnessy – 0% rostered
Admittedly, I don’t want him to be a thing because I don’t like spelling his name. But, then on the other hand, I’d get to say his name like Terry McLaurin on the radio, so… whatever. His 8 targets from Sunshine were second-most on the team behind DJ Chark. A matchup against Denver this week seems like a bad plan, but Zona, Cincy and Tennessee in the next couple of weeks are decent. It’ll only take a buck.


Jared Cook – He’s old. He’s not terribly exciting. He’ll put up numbers with Air Bear.

Keeper Value Chart – August 2021

To be frank, I’m copy/pasting a lot of this article that I posted back in July. I did update the values on all players, but the premise and examples are evergreen. So here we go…

Here’s a few examples of what I see on Twitter…

Scenario 1: “Should I keep DJ Moore in the 4th, Cooper Kupp in the 3rd or Antonio Gibson in the 2nd (late second, pick 2.08)?”

Scenario 2: “$200 auction, keep either McCaffery at $65 or Nick Chubb at $41.”

Scenario 3: “$100 auction cap, can keep two of four, Mixon for $26, Ekeler for $22 Hockenson for $8, Robert Woods for $7.”

The answer is easy in both scenarios… Wait, what? It is? Yeah, but you’ve got to do the math.

In scenario 1, you keep Gibson. Scenario 2, you keep Chubb. In scenario 3, you keep Ekeler and Woods.

How do we figure this out? By using the Keeper Value Calculator.

This handy cheat sheet works for both auction ($100 or $200 cap) and draft leagues. It gives you a value based on ADP, average auction values, and what the exchange rate is on the draft pick (because auction values are pretty straight-forward.

It’s spelled out on the attached PDF, but just in case you wanted a long-form explanation of how to use this, here it is.

If you’re in a draft and you pay certain rounds to keep players
i.e. Scenario #1 above – keeping players at differing rounds

Let’s just work with Scenario #1 above. Using our Player Values columns we find that:

Moore is worth 15
Kupp is worth 14
Gibson is worth 38

Then we consult our Round Value Chart.
The 4th is worth 17
The 3rd is worth 25
The 2.08 is worth 32

Do the math:
Moore = 15 – 17 = -2
Kupp = 14 – 25 = -11
Gibson = 38 – 32 = 6

As you can see, Gibson provides the most positive return on value.

You can choose to consult how good the value is by searching the handy Keeper Value chart within the calculator.

As you can see, Gibson comes in just above fair value. If you got to keep him for a third round pick instead, he’d be a 13 and a “Good Value,” and if you had to spend only a fourth rounder to keep him he rockets to a 21 and a “SHOCKING VALUE.”

If you’re in a base-$200 auction
This is really easy. Just take the Player Value and subtract the auction price for which you would need to keep them.

This is Scenario #2 above. McCaffery’s player value is $69, Chubb’s is $53. Fantasy manager had to keep CMC for $65 or Chubb for $41.

CMC = 69 – 65 = 4 (even-to-fair value)
Chubb = 53 – 41 = 12 (good value)

If you’re in a base-$100 auction
Slightly more math is involved. Take the Player Value and cut it in half, then subtract the auction price to give you your Keeper Value.

We saw this in Scenario #3.

Mixon = 40/2 = 20 – 26 = -6 (Not Good)
Ekeler = 44/2 = 22 – 22 = 0 (Even)
Hockenson = 10/2 = 5 – 8 = -3 (Not Good)
Woods = 15/2 = 7.5 – 7 = 0.5 (Even)

So the two possible players that this manager should keep are Ekeler and Woods, or else they’re overpaying.

Here’s the link to the Keeper Value Calculator just in case you missed it above.

Mat Harrison’s Redraft Cheat Sheet – July 24th

Hello there. If you’ve found your way to my redraft cheat sheet congratulations, I hope you enjoy what I’m throwin’ down.

If you’re viewing this one in the future, this is one of those carrots that we dangle out there. This article is the free copy of the cheat sheet, but it’s likely that if you’re reading this in say August of 2021, that I’ve made several updates to said cheat sheet. And you don’t want old data… do you?

Oh no! What to do now!?!?

I know! You can subscribe to Shock Fantasy and receive all of my cheat sheets! There’s the redraft, dynasty, best ball, keeper league and much more. Plus you get access to the Super Bowl, Thanksgiving and NFL Draft Prop Bet Games, and our exclusive weekly SuperDash that shows so many relevant stats that your head may explode with joy.

Use the promo code CHEATER at checkout to get your season pass for only $25. That’s a full year for about 50 cents a week!

Today’s updates:

Redraft Cheat Sheet (with kickers and defense)

Redraft Cheat Sheet (no kickers or defense)

Dynasty Trade Value Chart – July 22, 2021

Today is my birthday. What better guilt trip to lay on your dynasty league mates than to throw, “well it’s my birthday, so I shouldn’t have to throw in that extra draft pick in this trade.”

As my gift to you, Shock Fantasy members and visitors who’ve happened upon this for the first time, I’m making today’s Dynasty Trade Value Chart free. Just this one, because I’ve got a devoted fan base who pays for this advantage in their league, and it would be unfair to strip them of said advantage.

For those of you checking this out, here’s how the Dynasty Trade Value Chart works.

We’ve got three versions of the trade value chart. Pick the one that best represents your league.

Single Quarterback Trade Value Chart

SuperFlex Trade Value Chart

SuperFlex Tight End Premium Trade Value Chart

Once you’ve done that, you utilize the trade values listed in the chart to help increase the juice of your dynasty team via trades, your rookie draft or your waiver wire. Now, these are not only my rankings, but my general feel on how the dynasty world as a whole is valuing these players. A finger in the wind, so to speak. Yes, I bump up the players I like. No, I don’t completely punish the players I hate, because you may not hate them and they still retain value.

Here’s my general rules on how to use this to make a trade…

1. Trades should equal out with fair-ish numerical value on both sides. Fifty to 100 points either way is pretty okay for the most part.
2. The preference is to offer trades with an equal amount of players on each side. While you may want to offer 4 or 5 players for Christian McCaffery, you have to understand that if you offer a 5-for-1, that your trade partner must cut four players that he may like better than the ones you’re sending him. Even number trades tend to work better.
3. It is my strong recommendation that if you make an offer for any player, the minimum that you should offer in return should begin with a player of 67% value. For example, if we’re looking at acquiring DK Metcalf (900 value), you’d have to start the trade offer with a 600-level player (2/3 of the value) such as DJ Moore or Chris Godwin. After that you add things to both sides to help make the math work.

For instance:

DK Metcalf (900) + Zack Moss (300) for Chris Godwin (600) + Ezekiel Elliott (600) seems like a square deal to me. Maybe you like one end better than the other, but I’d bet the poll comes out fairly even there.

Enjoy this and thanks for reading.

If you like this kind of content, this is what we try to do at Shock Fantasy. Simple, clean dashboards and cheat sheets to help busy people make quick informed decisions in their fantasy leagues. We offer traditional redraft cheat sheets, dynasty, keeper and best ball cheat sheets in the preseason, and update our dynasty offerings as well as a weekly SuperDash during the season, that can help you make tough lineup decisions as well as fill out your DFS lineups.

The cover price for a year of Shock Fantasy is $40, but there’s always a sneaky discount code here or there. This month, you can get a full year for only $25 if you use the promo code CHEATER at checkout. I hope you enjoy this content and consider subscribing for consistent updates.

How to Start an Empire League

The year was 2012. LeagueSafe’s offices were buzzing with excitement as Paul Charchian, Christian Peterson and myself were working through the details of a new type of dynasty league, the Empire League.

Charch’s brainchild for sure, we wanted a type of dynasty league that didn’t seem like you’d just be stuck with a bad roster for years and years. Or get stuck with a team that was really good, but behind some sort of monster team that took first six years in a row. Most importantly, Charch wanted the league to have a defined end point. Dynasty leagues can go on forever and get stale and stagnant. Even if you’re playing for big bucks.

So, as we figured out the important parts of the league, here’s how the Empire League differs from a traditional dynasty league:

  • Every year half of the entry fees (or some desired amount) paid in, gets thrown into a rolling Empire Pot
  • The Empire Pot continues to grow season-after-season until a team wins the title in back-to-back seasons
  • At that point, the team that wins two titles in a row, is crowned the Emperor, they scoop the Empire Pot and the league disbands or starts over
  • To prevent collusion (as the Empire Pot can get quite hefty very quickly) the reigning champion of your league is not allowed to make trades, unless they abdicate the throne or are trading for future draft picks (picks after they would have won the Empire Pot).

Consider the league we started in 2012, which is still going today. We have an entry fee of $150. In this, what would be the 10th season of the league, if our current reigning champion wins again this year, they’ll walk out of here with a $9,000 Empire Pot (as well as the yearly winnings).

So what do you need to start an Empire League?

Well, 11 other friends is ideal. You need some savvy committed members to pull this off. We actually have a rule in place where in your untimely death, you can bequeath an heir to your team, since the pot could easily get into five figures, it’s somewhat of an investment.

You’ll need a site that can run what you want to do. We use, but you can do it on free sites like ESPN or Yahoo, or look at some other options like CBS or Sleeper. Generally, you’d like a robust enough system so you can trade future draft picks, the free sites make you do that manually, and the sites you’re going to pay a few bucks for tend to allow you to track more items like this.

We obviously have used LeagueSafe to hold the funds. If you’re not using LeagueSafe (who I don’t work for anymore, but still trust very much) you’d better have a league treasurer who you are absolutely sure won’t have sticky fingers.

You’ll need to start it up. Once you get all of your members, I suggest doing an auction for your initial dispersal, and then it’s a straight draft (all rounds 1-12, 1-12) for subsequent rookie drafts.

Last year I started a few Casual Empire Leagues, which are best ball lineups with limited transactions. I’ve included the rules for that below, as well as the most recent update to our original Empire League rules. You can feel free to use whatever you’d like to create your own rules, or just make up your own. This is a good starting point and does come up with a few scenarios that you may not have thought of.

Empire League Rules

Casual Empire League Rules

If you have questions, let us know (@ShockFantasy on Twitter), We’d be happy to help you get one off the ground.

Dynasty Baseball Trade Value Chart – All Star Break

I realize this is pretty much a football site. Don’t worry. It still is.

I play fantasy baseball too. As far as I know, I’m in the longest running empire baseball league on the planet, one that is in significant danger of dying this year. Needless to say, I’ve been doing a lot of trading this year. Because in empire you want to prop up some contenders and I also want to position myself for a run in 2022. I’ve spent a lot of time looking for dynasty trade calculators and trade value charts. There are a few out there that are okay, but I still wasn’t completely thrilled as to what was available.

So, this is my labor of love, and I thought I’d share it with you, just in case you may need it.

Here’s how you use this thing.

1. Trades should equal out with fair-ish numerical value on both sides. Fifty to 100 points either way is pretty okay for the most part.
2. The preference is to offer trades with equal players on each side. While you may want to offer 4 or 5 players for Fernando Tatis, you have to understand that if you offer a 5-for-1, that your trade partner must cut four players that he may like better than the ones you’re sending him. Even number trades tend to work better.
3. It is my strong recommendation that if you make an offer for any player, the minimum that you should offer in return should begin with a player of 67% value. Example: If you’d like to acquire Mike Trout (point value of 900), the lowest you can go with the top player you’d like to send back is two-thirds of that value, or 600 in this case. So your offer for Mike Trout would begin with Aaron Judge (600) and continue with Jose Abreu (300). Trout for Judge and Abreu is a great starting point.

Sure, you could try Trout for Willson Contreras (300), Rhys Hoskins (300) and Carlos Rodon (300), and it might work… but you’re better off starting at two-thirds. You’ll usually negotiate a bit better.

The Fantasy Baseball Dynasty Trade Value Chart – All Star Game Edition

I will try to give this an update or two before the MLB season is over.

If you enjoy the Shock Fantasy content, now is the perfect time to re-up for the 2021-22 season. Our season passes simply add another 365 days to your membership, so even if you have 100 days left on your subscription plan, we’d make that 465 if you buy another membership.

Use the promo code CHEATER for $15 off a membership.