Shock Fantasy

To be frank, I’m copy/pasting a lot of this article that I posted back in July. I did update the values on all players, but the premise and examples are evergreen. So here we go…

Here’s a few examples of what I see on Twitter…

Scenario 1: “Should I keep DJ Moore in the 4th, Cooper Kupp in the 3rd or Antonio Gibson in the 2nd (late second, pick 2.08)?”

Scenario 2: “$200 auction, keep either McCaffery at $65 or Nick Chubb at $41.”

Scenario 3: “$100 auction cap, can keep two of four, Mixon for $26, Ekeler for $22 Hockenson for $8, Robert Woods for $7.”

The answer is easy in both scenarios… Wait, what? It is? Yeah, but you’ve got to do the math.

In scenario 1, you keep Gibson. Scenario 2, you keep Chubb. In scenario 3, you keep Ekeler and Woods.

How do we figure this out? By using the Keeper Value Calculator.

This handy cheat sheet works for both auction ($100 or $200 cap) and draft leagues. It gives you a value based on ADP, average auction values, and what the exchange rate is on the draft pick (because auction values are pretty straight-forward.

It’s spelled out on the attached PDF, but just in case you wanted a long-form explanation of how to use this, here it is.

If you’re in a draft and you pay certain rounds to keep players
i.e. Scenario #1 above – keeping players at differing rounds

Let’s just work with Scenario #1 above. Using our Player Values columns we find that:

Moore is worth 15
Kupp is worth 14
Gibson is worth 38

Then we consult our Round Value Chart.
The 4th is worth 17
The 3rd is worth 25
The 2.08 is worth 32

Do the math:
Moore = 15 – 17 = -2
Kupp = 14 – 25 = -11
Gibson = 38 – 32 = 6

As you can see, Gibson provides the most positive return on value.

You can choose to consult how good the value is by searching the handy Keeper Value chart within the calculator.

As you can see, Gibson comes in just above fair value. If you got to keep him for a third round pick instead, he’d be a 13 and a “Good Value,” and if you had to spend only a fourth rounder to keep him he rockets to a 21 and a “SHOCKING VALUE.”

If you’re in a base-$200 auction
This is really easy. Just take the Player Value and subtract the auction price for which you would need to keep them.

This is Scenario #2 above. McCaffery’s player value is $69, Chubb’s is $53. Fantasy manager had to keep CMC for $65 or Chubb for $41.

CMC = 69 – 65 = 4 (even-to-fair value)
Chubb = 53 – 41 = 12 (good value)

If you’re in a base-$100 auction
Slightly more math is involved. Take the Player Value and cut it in half, then subtract the auction price to give you your Keeper Value.

We saw this in Scenario #3.

Mixon = 40/2 = 20 – 26 = -6 (Not Good)
Ekeler = 44/2 = 22 – 22 = 0 (Even)
Hockenson = 10/2 = 5 – 8 = -3 (Not Good)
Woods = 15/2 = 7.5 – 7 = 0.5 (Even)

So the two possible players that this manager should keep are Ekeler and Woods, or else they’re overpaying.

Here’s the link to the Keeper Value Calculator just in case you missed it above.